Imported from huynguyen03dev/btcusd-trading (SKILL.md). Install upstream with npx skills add huynguyen03dev/btcusd-trading. Copyright stays with the author.

BTCUSD LLM Scalping Analysis

Skill for small account scalping with tight stop losses (~$2).

Account Configuration

This skill is configured for a cent account with symbol BTCUSDc:

• Point size: 0.01 (2 decimal places on this broker feed)
• Default lot size: 0.01 (ALWAYS use this unless user specifies otherwise)
• Default SL: 20000 points = $2.00
• Default TP: 40000 points = $4.00
• Max spread: 2500 points = 25.00 price delta

IMPORTANT: When executing trades, ALWAYS use 0.01 lot unless the user explicitly requests a different size. Never increase lot size on your own.

When the skill mentions "$2", it refers to the dollar value ($2.00), which equals 20000 points on cent accounts.

Philosophy

You ARE the analyst. Your PRIMARY decision tool is price structure — where price is relative to support, resistance, swing points, and key levels.

Candle patterns and momentum are your confirmation — they support or deny what structure is telling you. Never take a trade purely because price moved. Structure first, patterns second.

Your priority stack:

1. Price structure (where is price relative to levels?)
2. Candle patterns (rejection wicks, engulfing, momentum)
3. Multi-timeframe confluence (does 15m agree with 5m?)
4. Spread/cost awareness (is the risk:reward viable after costs?)

Quick Start - MetaTrader 5 (Primary Method)

Requirements: MetaTrader 5 terminal running on Windows, Python with MetaTrader5 and pandas packages.

1. Real-Time Tick Data (Exact Spread)

py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_tick.py

Returns exact bid/ask/spread from your broker. Critical for $2 SL scalping — spread directly affects your effective risk.

Output includes:

• Current bid/ask prices
• Exact spread in points (not estimated)
• Spread warning if too high for scalping

2. Candle Data with Structure Analysis

# 5-minute candles (primary for scalping)
py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_candles.py M5 30

# 15-minute candles (for trend/structure)
py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_candles.py M15 20

# 1-minute candles (for micro entries)
py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_candles.py M1 40

Timeframes: M1, M5, M15, M30, H1, H4, D1

Returns OHLC candles with automatic structure analysis:

• Recent swing high/low (last 10 candles)
• Period high/low
• Position in range (0-100%)
• Structure signals (near support/resistance)

3. Signal Generation

Generate trade setups with clear entry zone, SL, TP1/TP2, and probability-based verdict.

Analysis Workflow

1. Run mt5_tick.py → get exact bid/ask/spread
2. Run mt5_candles.py M5 30 → get candles + auto structure analysis
3. Optionally run mt5_candles.py M15 20 → for higher timeframe trend
4. Analyze → structure first, patterns as context
5. Output signal → with checklist, levels, and probabilities
6. Output signal → provide levels, probabilities, and risk notes

Scalping Analysis Framework ($2 Stop Loss)

1. IDENTIFY MICRO STRUCTURE

With only $2 of risk, you need PRECISE entries:

• Find the immediate swing high/low (last 5-10 candles)
• Identify micro support/resistance levels
• Look for tight consolidation ranges (< $4)

2. ENTRY TIMING CRITERIA

Only signal when:

• Price is AT a clear level (not in the middle of a range)
• Recent candle shows rejection wick or engulfing pattern
• Stop loss placement is LOGICAL (behind structure, not arbitrary)

3. CALCULATE EXACT LEVELS

For every signal, specify:

Entry: [exact price]
Stop Loss: [entry ± $2]
Take Profit: [minimum 1:1.5 R:R = $3.00]

4. MOMENTUM CHECK

On 5m chart, confirm:

• Last 3-5 candles show directional bias
• No major wick rejections against your direction
• Volume/candle size increasing in your direction

5. PRICE POSITION CHECK (High-Probability Triggers)

These extreme positions often precede reversals — use them as entry confirmations:

• Price at period low (bottom 10% of range) → watch for LONG
• Price at period high (top 10% of range) → watch for SHORT
• Price shows rejection wick at level → confirmation

When price is at an extreme AND shows rejection, bounce probability increases significantly.

Hard "NO TRADE" Gates

Before generating any signal, check these. Gates marked HARD = must skip. Gates marked SOFT = warn but can still trade.

HARD Gate 1: ATR-Based Volatility Filter (Broker-Calibrated)

Compute ATR(14) on both M5 and M15 from fresh candles.

• M5 hard gate: If latest M5 candle range > 1.8 x ATR(14, M5) → SKIP
• M15 hard gate: If latest M15 candle range > 1.6 x ATR(14, M15) → SKIP
• Baseline calibration for this BTCUSDc feed:
  • Typical ATR(14, M5): 1200-2800 points
  • Typical ATR(14, M15): 2600-5200 points
  • If ATR is far above these bands for multiple candles, treat regime as unstable and favor NO TRADE

HARD Gate 2: News Event Filter

Do NOT trade during or 15 minutes before/after these events:

• US: CPI, NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls), FOMC rate decisions, PCE, PPI
• Global: ECB/BOE/BOJ rate decisions, geopolitical shocks
• BTC can move $30-50+ in seconds during these events. A $2 SL is meaningless.

If you're unsure whether a news event is happening, add a warning: "Check economic calendar before entering."

HARD Gate 3: Script Failure

• If mt5_tick.py or mt5_candles.py returns an error → NO TRADE
• If data looks stale (price hasn't changed in multiple fetches) → NO TRADE

SOFT Gate 4: Spread/Slippage Cost Awareness (Broker-Calibrated)

On this BTCUSDc feed, spread is typically 1200-2200 points (12.00-22.00 price delta), with occasional spikes.

With MT5: Use mt5_tick.py to get the exact current spread from your broker. This is critical for $2 SL scalping.

Your REAL risk per trade (use live spread from mt5_tick.py):

Effective SL = $2 + spread_cost + slippage_cost
Effective TP1 = $2 - spread_cost
Effective TP2 = $4 - spread_cost

Use Cost@0.01 from mt5_tick.py for spread_cost. If spread is above 2200 points, downgrade confidence by one level.

HARD Gate 5: Rollover Period (21:00-22:00 UTC)

• DO NOT TRADE during 21:00-22:00 UTC (daily rollover/swap time)
• Stop hunts are extremely common during this window — market makers sweep liquidity before the new session
• If you must trade during rollover, use minimum $3-4 SL (not $2) to survive the wicks
• This gate was upgraded from SOFT to HARD based on real session experience where two consecutive $2 SLs were hunted during rollover

SOFT Gate 6: Session Timing

• Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC) — tightest spreads, best liquidity
• OK: London session (08:00-12:00 UTC), NY session (13:00-21:00 UTC)
• Warn but allow: Asian session (wider spreads, note it)

Signal Output Format

## BTCUSD SCALP SIGNAL

**Action**: 🟢 BUY (Long) / 🔴 SELL (Short) / ⚪ NO TRADE
**Confidence**: [High / Medium / Low]

### Levels
- Current Price: $XXXX.XX
- Entry Zone: $XXXX.XX - $XXXX.XX
- Stop Loss: $XXXX.XX ($2 risk)
- Take Profit 1: $XXXX.XX (+$2)
- Take Profit 2: $XXXX.XX (+$4)

### Win Probability & Scenarios

**IMPORTANT**: These probabilities are HEURISTIC — educated guesses based on structure, not statistical models. Be honest but not paralyzed.

**Probability guidelines**:
- Use ranges: "35-45%", not "42%"
- Cap at 70% max for any single outcome
- If SL probability > TP1 probability by a wide margin → SKIP
- If everything is 33/33/33 → lean toward the direction momentum supports

Estimate how likely each outcome is based on the current structure:

| Scenario | Target | Gross | Net After Live Spread | Est. Probability |
|----------|--------|-------|---------------------------|-----------------|
| SL Hit | $XXXX | -$2 | -($2 + spread_cost + slippage_cost) | XX-XX% |
| TP1 Hit | $XXXX | +$2 | +($2 - spread_cost) | XX-XX% |
| TP2 Hit | $XXXX | +$4 | +($4 - spread_cost) | XX-XX% |

**Expected Value (cost-adjusted)**:
- TP1 play: (TP1% x net_TP1) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX
- TP2 play: (TP2% x net_TP2) - (SL% x net_SL) = $X.XX

**Verdict**: [WORTH TAKING / MARGINAL / SKIP]

The goal is to make disciplined decisions, not to force trades. If a setup has structural edge, report it with honest probabilities and strict risk framing.

### Pre-Signal Checklist

Answer these. Flag any "No" items as risks.

| # | Check | Answer |
|---|-------|--------|
| 1 | Is price near a clear level? | Yes/No |
| 2 | Is 5m volatility within ATR gate (latest range <= 1.8x ATR14)? | Yes/No |
| 3 | Is there a candle pattern or momentum confirming? | Yes/No |
| 4 | Does higher timeframe direction agree? | Yes/No |
| 5 | Is SL behind some structure? | Yes/No |
| 6 | No major news event right now? | Yes/No |

**Setup is actionable** if: Majority are "Yes" and #2 + #6 pass. Flag any "No" as a risk factor.

### Structure Analysis
[What micro structure you see - support/resistance, swing points]

### Entry Trigger
[Specific condition to enter - e.g., "break above local range high", "rejection candle at intraday support"]

### Reasoning
[2-3 sentences on why this setup works]

### Risk Warning
This is LLM-based analysis for testing only. Not financial advice.

What to Look For (5m Chart)

🟢 BUY Setups: Support bounce, breakout pullback, higher low, stop hunt reversal (wick sweeps lows then V-recovers)

🔴 SELL Setups: Resistance rejection, breakdown retest, lower high, stop hunt reversal (wick sweeps highs then V-reverses)

⚪ NO TRADE: Price mid-range, choppy action, high volatility, near session open/close

Important Notes

1. LLM is NOT predictive - Pattern reading, not forecasting
2. $2 is TIGHT - Real risk ~$2.40 after spread. Be selective.
3. Session timing - Best: London-NY overlap (13:00-17:00 UTC)
4. News kills scalpers - Check calendar before trading

Trade Management (Once in a Position)

• Trailing: At +$2, trail SL to +$1
• Session limit: After 2 consecutive losses (-$4), STOP for the session
• After losses: Widen SL to $3-4 if continuing

Experience Log

Add lessons learned here as you trade:

Setup

1. Install MetaTrader 5 terminal from your broker
2. Install Python packages: pip install MetaTrader5 pandas
3. Make sure MT5 terminal is running and logged in
4. Test: py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_tick.py

Continuous Monitoring Mode

When asked to monitor BTCUSD for scalping opportunities, use this workflow:

Position Awareness Rules (REQUIRED)

• If any BTCUSDc position is open, switch to active-trade monitoring.
• If no position is open, continue normal setup monitoring.

Monitor Loop Execution Rules (CRITICAL)

This is an INFINITE loop. You MUST continue until user explicitly says "stop", "exit", or "pause".

HARD RULES:

• After NEUTRAL, WATCHING, or CONSOLIDATING → execute sleep → immediately fetch new data
• Do NOT say "let me know if you want me to continue" — just continue
• Do NOT rationalize stopping ("market seems quiet", "no setup forming") — keep monitoring
• Only stop on: user command, or HARD gate failure (market closed, script error)

After SIGNAL:

• Output full signal format with entry/SL/TP levels
• Continue monitoring based on state rules

Monitor Loop

1. Load this skill for all analysis
2. Fetch data — run BOTH tick and candle scripts every cycle:

   py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_tick.py
   py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_candles.py M5 15

   • mt5_tick.py → exact spread (critical for $2 SL)
   • mt5_candles.py → structure (swing highs/lows, support/resistance, patterns)
   • DO NOT skip candles — you need structure levels for analysis
   • Every 3-5 cycles, also fetch 15m candles for trend context:

     py C:/Users/trader69/.config/opencode/skill/btcusd-trading/scripts/mt5_candles.py M15 10

3. Analyze and determine state (structure first, patterns as confirmation)
4. Wait based on state, then repeat

Wait Discipline (Important)

When monitoring continuously, pause between cycles to avoid overwhelming the context.

• WATCHING (15 seconds):

  sleep 15

• NEUTRAL (30 seconds):

  sleep 30

• CONSOLIDATING (45 seconds):

  sleep 45

Rule: Do not run back-to-back fetches without waiting unless the user explicitly says "check now" or "new candle now".

Adaptive Intervals

Detecting CONSOLIDATING State

Switch to CONSOLIDATING when ALL of these are true:

1. Tight range: Last 3-5 candles have total range < $2 (highs and lows compressed)
2. No breakout: Price not testing key support/resistance (stuck in middle)
3. Low momentum: Small candle bodies, no direction

Why this matters: Checking every minute during consolidation wastes API calls and adds no value. Wait for the range to break, then switch back to WATCHING.

Exit CONSOLIDATING: When price breaks out of the range OR volatility expands (larger candles)

State Transitions

• NEUTRAL → WATCHING: Price approaches support/resistance, or at extreme of range
• NEUTRAL → CONSOLIDATING: Price enters tight range with no momentum
• WATCHING → SIGNAL: Entry trigger confirmed (rejection wick, breakout, stop hunt reversal)
• WATCHING → NEUTRAL: Price moves away from level without triggering
• WATCHING → CONSOLIDATING: Price stalls at level, forms tight range instead of breaking
• CONSOLIDATING → WATCHING: Range breaks, price moves toward key level
• CONSOLIDATING → SIGNAL: Breakout with momentum confirms entry
• SIGNAL → Output signal

On SIGNAL

Output the full signal format (see Signal Output Format above). If entry range is specified, include a suggested limit midpoint, but do not place any order.

On Active Trade

When a position is open:

• Switch to 10-second monitoring intervals
• Track P&L, distance to SL/TP
• Alert on key levels (+$1.00 for breakeven move, approaching TP, approaching SL)
• Continue until trade closes