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Crucible CIO Team — Agent Registry
37 agents across 6 layers. Each entry: invocation command, one-sentence function, and the exact verdict or stamp the agent produces.
Layer 0 — Governance
Pre-trade decision review. Five independent adversarial agents plus one full-panel meta-command. Run before any trade, strategy deployment, or portfolio change.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compliance Officer | /compliance |
Checks trade permissibility against fund mandate, regulatory limits, LP alignment, and disclosure obligations. | COMPLIANCE VERDICT: VIOLATION | WARNING | CLEAR |
| Risk Officer | /risk |
Evaluates position sizing, VaR contribution, drawdown headroom, correlation clustering, and tail scenarios. | RISK VERDICT: BLOCKED | FLAGGED | APPROVED |
| Macro Analyst | /macro |
Challenges macro thesis coherence, regime identification, cross-asset consistency, and historical analog quality. | MACRO VERDICT: OPPOSED | CONDITIONAL | ALIGNED |
| Signal Researcher | /signal |
Stress-tests signal statistical validity, overfitting exposure, regime robustness, and live/backtest parity. | SIGNAL VERDICT: REJECTED | FLAGGED | VALIDATED |
| Systems Architect | /systems |
Audits execution infrastructure, data pipeline integrity, latency budget, and deployment readiness. | SYSTEMS VERDICT: BLOCKED | CONDITIONAL | CLEAR |
| Full Panel | /crucible |
Runs all five governance agents in sequence and synthesizes a binding panel verdict. | NO-GO | CONDITIONAL GO | GO |
Panel sequence: Compliance → Risk → Macro → Signal → Systems. Compliance runs first because a mandate violation is not a risk management question.
Layer 1 — Operations
Continuous monitoring. These agents run in parallel to the rest of the stack — daily, intra-day, or at end-of-month as noted.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown Monitor | /drawdown-monitor |
Tracks drawdown velocity, depth, and correlation profile to trigger circuit breakers at four escalation levels. | DRAWDOWN STATUS: MONITOR | WARN | SUSPEND | HALT |
| Vendor Monitor | /vendor-monitor |
Monitors data feed health, staleness, silent failure patterns, and switchover risk across all market data sources. | FEED STATUS per instrument: LIVE | STALE | FAILED | SWITCHOVER |
| Audit Logger | /audit-logger |
Enforces five required elements of a complete pre-trade record and gates trades on completeness. | COMPLETE | INCOMPLETE |
| Cash Manager | /cash-manager |
Tracks margin utilization, per-position headroom, cash drag, and margin call triggers across the portfolio. | MARGIN STATUS: OK | WARNING | CRITICAL |
| NAV Calculator | /nav-calculator |
Verifies daily NAV integrity by checking price sources, staleness, corporate actions, and cross-source consistency. | STAMP: VERIFIED | VERIFIED WITH NOTES | UNVERIFIED |
| LP Reporter | /lp-reporter |
Drafts the LP letter with period return attribution, drawdown narrative, risk metrics, and disclosure scan. | DRAFT stamp + disclosure checklist |
| Tax Tracker | /tax-tracker |
Monitors tax lot holding periods, wash sale exposure, harvest opportunities, and after-tax return impact. | TAX STATUS with lot-level harvest flags |
| Macro Scanner | /macro-scanner |
Produces a daily four-dimension regime state digest with Kalshi overlay and portfolio implications. | Regime state machine output + REGIME CHANGE DETECTED flag |
| Event Calendar | /event-calendar |
Builds a 30-day event risk calendar with ATR-based impact models and sizing recommendations for critical windows. | EVENT RISK — REVIEW POSITION | EVENT RISK — MONITOR | NO MATERIAL EVENT RISK |
| Kalshi Reader | /kalshi-reader |
Reads prediction market signals, flags consensus divergence ≥15pp, and converts to regime-weighted signals. | HIGH SIGNAL | NO SIGNAL; POLICY SHIFT SIGNAL |
Layer 2 — Intelligence
Market context generation. These agents produce structured outputs consumed by Governance agents — particularly the Regime Classifier's REGIME_STATE block, which feeds the Macro Analyst directly.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flow Analyst | /flow-analyst |
Analyzes CFTC COT data for net positioning percentile, OI rate-of-change, and mechanical squeeze severity. | CROWDED | ELEVATED | NEUTRAL | CONTRARIAN per instrument |
| Sentiment Tracker | /sentiment-tracker |
Scores news sentiment against a 30-day baseline and flags price-sentiment divergence and rapid narrative shifts. | NARRATIVE SHIFT | STABLE | DIVERGENCE |
| Earnings Watcher | /earnings-watcher |
Monitors corporate event risk using implied vs. historical move, vol premium, and beat/miss rates. | EARNINGS RISK HIGH | MODERATE | LOW |
| Regime Classifier | /regime-classifier |
Produces a machine-readable four-dimension regime state and confidence score, consumed by Governance agents. | REGIME_STATE block + REGIME CLASSIFICATION with confidence |
Layer 3 — Research
Signal development and portfolio sizing. These agents validate new alpha ideas before they reach Governance, and produce target allocations that feed the Execution layer's Rebalancer.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Signal Generator | /signal-generator |
Proposes regime-consistent, non-redundant alpha hypotheses grounded in mechanism — explicitly not validated. | HYPOTHESIS — NOT VALIDATED stamp |
| Backtest Designer | /backtest-designer |
Runs a seven-check spec review covering universe, regime coverage, cost model, timing, holdout, benchmark, and power. | SPEC APPROVED | SPEC REQUIRES REVISION |
| Correlation Mapper | /correlation-mapper |
Audits eight-factor loadings, pairwise correlations under normal and stress regimes, and portfolio diversification score. | APPROVED | REDUNDANT | CONCENTRATION WARNING |
| Capacity Estimator | /capacity-estimator |
Calculates AUM ceiling using the square-root impact model at 1/5/10% ADV and flags when AUM approaches that ceiling. | CAPACITY CONSTRAINED flag when AUM is within 3× of ceiling |
| Decay Tracker | /decay-tracker |
Compares rolling 3m/6m/12m live vs. backtest Sharpe and classifies the signal's decay curve shape. | Health score 0–100 + decay curve: linear | exponential | episodic |
| Portfolio Optimizer | /portfolio-optimizer |
Computes target allocations via risk parity or mean-variance, enforces hard constraints, and identifies binding constraints. | ALLOCATION COMPLETE | REBALANCE TRIGGER | URGENT REBALANCE | BINDING CONSTRAINT ACTIVE |
Layer 4 — Execution
Order management and fill quality. These agents receive verdicts from Governance and target allocations from Research, and produce the actual trade instructions.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Order Router | /order-router |
Selects venue and order type by instrument class, applies VWAP window, and halts orders that exceed 10% ADV. | APPROVED | OUTSIZED ORDER — HALT |
| Slippage Monitor | /slippage-monitor |
Benchmarks fills against arrival price, computes realized vs. modeled slippage ratio, and classifies broker performance. | ACCEPTABLE | ELEVATED | INVESTIGATE; FILL DEGRADATION flag at ratio >1.5 for 3 consecutive trades |
| Position Reconciler | /position-reconciler |
Runs three-way reconciliation across broker, OMS, and signal register and flags breaks by type and severity. | CLEAN | BREAKS DETECTED; ORDER ROUTING GATE: CLEARED | SUSPENDED |
| Rebalancer | /rebalancer |
Generates the optimal trade list from Portfolio Optimizer targets, nets trades, sequences exits first, and flags uneconomic rebalances. | REBALANCE APPROVED — FULL | REBALANCE APPROVED — PARTIAL | REBALANCE UNECONOMIC | NO REBALANCE REQUIRED |
| Roll Manager | /roll-manager |
Maintains a 90-day futures expiry calendar, monitors roll cost vs. 30-day average, and issues urgent roll alerts within 3 days of first notice. | URGENT ROLL | ROLL NOW | ROLL COST ELEVATED |
Layer 0 — Human Roles
Institutional expertise roles. These agents model the specialized knowledge domains that underpin fund operations — model validation, infrastructure quality, fund accounting, portfolio-wide risk, LP relationships, legal compliance, and execution management. Run for targeted domain reviews or as part of periodic fund audits. Not part of the pre-trade pipeline, but foundational to everything the pipeline depends on.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quant Researcher | /quant-researcher |
Validates model mathematics: distributional assumptions (Jarque-Bera, kurtosis, skewness), theoretical pricing consistency, parameter stability via rolling estimation, overfitting via deflated Sharpe and SR_in/SR_out ratio, and factor model residual structure via Ljung-Box. | MODEL VERDICT: INVALID | CONDITIONAL | VALIDATED per model component |
| Infrastructure Auditor | /infrastructure-auditor |
Reviews code quality and engineering debt: race conditions on shared mutable state, idempotency of signal calculations, dependency version pinning, error handling coverage for every external call, and a 0–100 engineering debt score with prioritized remediation list. | INFRASTRUCTURE VERDICT: NOT READY | CONDITIONAL | PRODUCTION READY |
| Fund Accountant | /fund-accountant |
Runs full fund accounting: P&L attribution reconciled to NAV change within 0.01%, fee calculation against LPA (management fee, performance fee, HWM integrity), expense allocation (fund-borne vs. manager-borne), trial balance with double-entry check, and Big 4 audit readiness. | ACCOUNTING VERDICT: AUDIT FAILURE | REQUIRES REMEDIATION | AUDIT READY |
| Chief Risk Officer | /chief-risk-officer |
Portfolio-wide board-level risk: parametric and historical VaR at 95%/99%, five named historical crisis stress tests (GFC, COVID, 2022 Rate Shock, 1994 Bond Massacre, LTCM 1998), days-to-liquidate vs. redemption notice, stress-period correlation breakdown (ρ=0.85 floor), and Board Risk Report with RAG status per dimension. | PORTFOLIO RISK STATUS: RED | AMBER | GREEN |
| Investor Relations | /investor-relations |
LP relationship and capital raise: eight-section DDQ simulation with gap scoring, quarterly call preparation with top-5 LP questions and proactive disclosure flags, capital raise readiness (track record ≥12 months, ops, regulatory), LP communication audit (monthly NAV, quarterly letters, material changes), and redemption risk (LP concentration, notice vs. liquidity, gate adequacy). | IR VERDICT: NOT READY | CONDITIONAL | IR READY |
| General Counsel | /general-counsel |
Regulatory and legal risk: exemption filing currency and threshold monitoring (CPO 4.13(a)(3), IA registration), horizon scanning for SEC/CFTC/FCA/ESMA rules with >50% finalization probability, trade legal risk (sanctions, short sale compliance, insider trading, market manipulation), counterparty legal risk (ISDA termination events, margin acceleration, re-hypothecation), and litigation risk severity scoring. | LEGAL VERDICT: LEGAL HOLD | LEGAL REVIEW REQUIRED | LEGAL CLEAR |
| Head of Trading | /head-of-trading |
Execution quality and broker management: five-dimension broker scorecard (IS, fill rate, rejection rate, latency, commissions) with PREFERRED/ACCEPTABLE/REVIEW/TERMINATE verdict per broker, commission audit as % AUM and % gross P&L with benchmarks, prime broker fit assessment (financing rates, sec lending split, technology), execution strategy review against the square-root impact model (EXECUTION INEFFICIENCY at >30% excess), and market structure risk (fragmentation, rule changes, liquidity migration). | EXECUTION VERDICT: RESTRUCTURE NEEDED | REVIEW REQUIRED | EXECUTION OPTIMIZED |
Layer 0 Extension — Deep Fund Functions
Specialized institutional functions separating top-tier systematic funds from the rest. Run for targeted domain reviews: alternative data sourcing, derivatives risk, short selling infrastructure, factor attribution, multi-strategy capital allocation, counterparty credit, ESG compliance, and LP capital development.
| Agent | Command | Function | Key Output |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alternative Data Analyst | /alternative-data-analyst |
Evaluates data source differentiation (four-tier classification), legality (MNPI, ToS, anonymization), signal half-life via McLean & Pontiff decay model, data quality (survivorship, look-ahead from revision schedules), and break-even AUM ROI. | DIFFERENTIATED EDGE | COMMODITIZED EDGE | SHORT RUNWAY | LEGAL REVIEW REQUIRED |
| Derivatives Desk | /derivatives-desk |
Evaluates options overlays (IV/RV ratio, Greeks, breakeven), minimum variance hedge ratio (h* = ρσ_spot/σ_futures), OTC audit (CVA, ISDA hard block, margin), portfolio net Greeks, and 90-day expiration calendar. | HEDGE APPROVED | OVERPRICED HEDGE | UNDERHEDGED | HARD BLOCK |
| Securities Lending | /securities-lending |
Audits short selling infrastructure: borrow cost (GC/warm/hot/special classification, adjusted Sharpe), locate availability (SI%, DTC, institutional ownership), recall risk, dividend exposure, and short squeeze scenario with portfolio P&L impact. | SHORT APPROVED | BORROW COST DRAG | LOCATE RISK HIGH | RECALL IMMINENT | SHORT UNECONOMIC |
| Factor Attribution | /factor-attribution |
Decomposes returns via Fama-French 5-factor + momentum + carry regression (R² > 70% = ALPHA ILLUSION), monitors factor loading drift (>0.3 shift), HHI factor concentration, factor-regime mismatch from REGIME_STATE, and passive replication test (>80% = REPLICABLE BY PASSIVE). | ALPHA CONFIRMED | ALPHA ILLUSION | FACTOR DRIFT | FACTOR-REGIME MISMATCH | REPLICABLE BY PASSIVE |
| Capital Allocator | /capital-allocator |
Allocates risk budget across strategies (risk parity + mean-variance, flags >30% deviation), monitors cross-strategy P&L correlation (spikes >0.6), evaluates pod Sharpe (<0.3 for two quarters = UNDERPERFORMING), issues REALLOCATE/WATCH/SHUTDOWN decisions, and monitors aggregate capacity ceiling. | OPTIMALLY ALLOCATED | MISALLOCATED | REBALANCE REQUIRED | STRATEGY SHUTDOWN RECOMMENDED |
| Counterparty Risk | /counterparty-risk |
Maps prime broker concentration (>60% = flag, full rehypothecation = flag), computes OTC CVA (EAD × PD × LGD, >0.5% NAV = flag, no ISDA = HARD BLOCK), assesses clearing house default fund adequacy, monitors settlement fails and Herstatt FX risk, and models Lehman-style PB failure NAV impact. | COUNTERPARTY EXPOSURE CLEAN | CONCENTRATION WARNING | ELEVATED COUNTERPARTY RISK | HARD BLOCK |
| ESG Analyst | /esg-analyst |
Screens exclusion list (weapons, tobacco, coal >30% revenue, OFAC — HARD BLOCK on breach), computes portfolio-weighted MSCI ESG score (< BBB = POOR), calculates WACI carbon intensity (>150 tCO2e/$M = HIGH), audits governance red flags (3+ = GOVERNANCE RISK), and checks LP ESG mandate compatibility. | ESG COMPLIANT | EXCLUSION LIST BREACH | POOR ESG EXPOSURE | HIGH CARBON INTENSITY | LP ESG INCOMPATIBILITY |
| Business Development | /business-development |
Audits LP pipeline (>45 days in same stage = STALLING), LP base concentration (>20% single LP = HIGH CONCENTRATION), capital raise readiness gate (10 required items), emerging manager program qualification (Fidelity, Schwab, iCapital, Deutsche Bank), and pitch effectiveness (12-point LP checklist, <3.5/5.0 = NOT READY). | RAISE READY | RAISE NOT READY | PIPELINE HEALTHY | PIPELINE STALLING |
Verdict Reference
| Verdict / Stamp | Agent | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
NO-GO |
Full Panel | Hard block — do not proceed |
CONDITIONAL GO |
Full Panel | Proceed with specified conditions |
GO |
Full Panel | Cleared — mandatory post-trade monitoring required |
VIOLATION |
Compliance | Mandate or regulatory breach — hard stop |
BLOCKED |
Risk / Systems | Hard stop at risk or infrastructure layer |
HALT |
Drawdown Monitor | Maximum circuit breaker — suspend all activity |
SUSPEND |
Drawdown Monitor | Reduce all positions, no new trades |
UNVERIFIED |
NAV Calculator | Do not distribute or report until resolved |
OUTSIZED ORDER — HALT |
Order Router | Order exceeds 10% ADV — do not route |
BREAKS DETECTED |
Position Reconciler | Reconciliation gate suspended pending resolution |
REBALANCE UNECONOMIC |
Rebalancer | Cost > 50% of expected Sharpe benefit — partial rebalance only |
SPEC REQUIRES REVISION |
Backtest Designer | Backtest may not proceed until spec deficiencies resolved |
HYPOTHESIS — NOT VALIDATED |
Signal Generator | Idea only — no capital allocation until /signal clears |
FILL DEGRADATION |
Slippage Monitor | Broker on formal review — consider reducing order flow |
NARRATIVE SHIFT |
Sentiment Tracker | 5-day sentiment drift > 0.3 — escalate for positioning review |
EARNINGS RISK HIGH |
Earnings Watcher | Hedge required before expiry |
CROWDED |
Flow Analyst | Extreme same-direction speculative positioning — squeeze risk elevated |
CAPACITY CONSTRAINED |
Capacity Estimator | AUM within 3× of ceiling — do not raise without impact model revision |
URGENT ROLL |
Roll Manager | ≤3 days to first notice — execute immediately |